Why "Resist China to Protect Taiwan" Has Lost its Luster
United Daily News, November 5, 2022
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has entertained a fantasy in this upcoming local election that numerous voters will respond to its slogan of “resist China to protect Taiwan.” Therefore, the DPP believes that it will turn its trailing polls a month before the election into final victory. However, this is just fantasy after all.
Prior to Taiwan’s last presidential election in 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed in his January 2019 address a “One Country, Two Systems” model tailored to Taiwan, provoking disgust among the Taiwanese people. His remarks were then immediately followed by Beijing’s violent suppression of the Hong Kong protests against the proposed extradition law. Hence, the slogan of “Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow” penetrated into the hearts of Taiwanese people who were reluctant to allow Taiwan falling into a second Hong Kong chose to vote for the DPP.
However, the manipulation of “resist China to protect Taiwan” in 2022 did not work successfully. At the Social Night event of the DPP on October 28, President Tsai Ing-wen called for voters to support the DPP in the election the following month. President Tsai claimed that if the DPP does not fare well in the election, what will be the interpretation of the international community? People will ask if Taiwanese people change their minds.
Vice President William Lai on many occasions of campaigning for DPP candidates also mentioned the strident changes in international situation while quoting Russia-Ukraine War by comparing DPP Taichung mayoral candidate Tsai Chi-chang as Vladmir Zelenskyy of Taichung City. He called for voters to unite in the election campaign to enable the DPP to turn defeat into victory. However, this appealing for “Resist China to protect Taiwan” by ranking DPP officials, even Tsai himself admitted that as testified by fact, this fire “has not as yet been kindled”.
The reason the slogan does not work and even provokes disgust among Taiwanese people is that with the beginning invasion of Russia to Ukraine late February, the bloody cruelty of war is vivid. “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” is no longer beneficial to the DPP, plus the large-scale military exercise of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in August with missiles flying over the sky of Taiwan; on the surface, life seems normal in Taiwan but fear begins to spread over, the cloud of war shrouds Taiwanese society, middle class Taiwanese begin to explore ways of immigration, those affordable are sending their children abroad to study.
Manipulating Fear Indeed Not Beneficial to DPP Campaign
DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Chen Shih-chung stated that “resist China to protect Taiwan” is a value, not related to the election campaign, and that the personal values of the candidate should be highlighted. However, those who are willing to sacrifice lives and fight for Taiwan political value are only respectable minority while winning the election requires garnering majority votes.
Others say the manipulation of the “resist China to protect Taiwan” card should be waited until presidential election, which is but only thirteen months away, whether the minds of voters will change totally within such short period of time is doubtful. Furthermore, just as former DPP Chairman Hsu Hsin-liang stated that if the DPP still manipulates the “resist China to protect Taiwan” card before presidential election, continuedly stresses the sense of crisis, it will be a “dangerous move” under the entire political situation and will absolutely not be beneficial to the DPP.
In contrast, in the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), former President Ma Ying-jeou proposed “prepare for war, avoid war, and seek peace.” Some KMT leaders worry that this is not politically correct and will be met with merciless criticism by the DPP. In other words, the KMT will suffer before the party can benefit from it. Consequently, it is not a formal claim of the KMT’s election campaign.
Cross-Strait Tensions but No Communication Channel
In contrast to “resist China to protect Taiwan,” “avoid war to seek peace” is an effective counter-argument. “Seek peace” for example is a diplomatic means stressing communication and negotiation. This is precisely what the United States is doing, and President Biden even hopes to meet Mr. Xi face to face in the upcoming summit for straight communication. Cross-strait relations is so tense right now, how can there be no channel of communication? Earlier, Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia of the KMT visited Mainland China, after this election such visit should be continued. The KMT cannot shrink back while meeting with criticisms.
Avoidance of war also has different categorized dimensions. First, the simplest one is to avoid war for the sake per se while begging for peace, this is not morally justifiable and self-assured. Second, breakout of war is the full responsibility of the ruling party, DPP has full power and is duty-bound. The DPP cannot shirk its responsibility using “resist China to protect Taiwan” as an excuse. Third, avoidance of war and preparation for war are inseparable. Only when you are ready and prepared for war, can you deter your enemy and thus leading to avoiding war.
With Heightened Risks, Voters Will Favor Party Supporting War Avoidance
Facing possible breakout of conflict, the psychology of voters is complicated, maybe because disliking the aggressive mainland Chinese hegemony, they voted for the party willing to confront it. But while the risk of crisis is rising to a possible war, they will tend to avoid war and vote instead for the party which can bring peace.
On the surface, the DPP administration cried for “resist China to protect Taiwan,” figuring that the mainland is simply a paper tiger and dare not invade Taiwan; externally it desires to play a tragic role and follow suit Ukraine to resist hegemony invasion. The issue is despite all the rhetoric by the DPP, the United States is tending to equip Taiwan as a “hedgehog country,” using Taiwan to drag down China just as they did to Ukraine to drag down Russia. Taiwan must bite the bullet.
Ukraine’s nationalism reached its apex when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea in 2014, and this enabled Petro Porosenko who swore not to abandon the land of Crimea to get elected in the first round as the president of Ukraine. But immediately the war shadow devoured Ukrainians while President Porosenko crying for “resist Russia to protect Ukraine” failed in presidential election in 2019 and Vladimir Zelenskyy, the comedian who swore to lead Ukraine people away from war was elected president.
Reactions of Taiwanese and Ukrainian people have been highly similar for the recent decade. The irony of history may repeat in Taiwan in 2024.